Singapore & Malaysia Stock Market Weekly Review

Weekly Technical view on STI

Weekly wrap of STI:

This was the good week for STI & it made a Green candle for this week continuing the bullish trend of last week as there was a gap up opening of around 8 points in this week.

STI cover the range of 34 points for this week. A spinning top candle was formed for this week and with a short real body. As the whole week was full of Q1 result & dividend distributed by the counters so the bullish trend is expected in the coming week.

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3250	3230	3200	3280	3300	3330

Macroeconomic factors:

• Singapore consumer price or inflation rose by 1.2% in March, where food inflation rose by 2.9% & health care inflation by 3.4%
  
• A fall of 22% reported in net profit of Singapore Exchange a net profit of S$ 75.8 million was reported
• Gerard Ee elected as a President of Institute of Singapore Chartered Accountants.
• CapitaMall Asia made a jump of 2.8% to S$75.3 million in Net Profit for 1Q 2014.
• RH Perto Gas Investments proposed sale of 49% Stake in RHP for US $ 2.79Million
• Shares in Catalist listed SHC Capital Asia surged on Monday that it is discussing a sale of its core insurance business

Market Forecast for week ahead:

The market is moving in the uptrend and is supported by the good volume the technical indicators are also positive for the next week. The expected range for the coming week of STI would be 3250- 3300.

In the coming week there will be many counters like MapleTree, ThaiBev,SGX, CapitaMalls Asia, OCBC Bank and many more which will be delivering there dividend so the fundamental will be supportive for the up move of STI.

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3260.78
HIGH	3284.70
LOW	3250.09
CLOSE	3267.57
CHANGE (In Points)	13.77
% CHANGE	0.42 %

Technical Indicators:

Technical Indicators are showing the uptrend where RSI is above the centre line @52.27 else CCI is @ 181.57 which means that there is still a fair move for STI to take upside.

Weekly Technical view on KLCI

Weekly wrap of KLCI:

KLCI opened at 1851.61 for this week, took the uptrend and made a high of 1870.89 and closed at 1860.98 for this week. A green candle was formed for this week. For this week KLCI make a movement of almost 20 points.

A Inverted hammer Pattern was formed for this week with a long real body and a long upper shadow. 20 Days EMA is @1830 where the 50 Days EMA is @ 1792.

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
1845	1825	1800	1875	1890	1915

Market Forecast for week ahead:

KLCI is performing at its peak and is able to sustain itself form last three week so it can be said that now it is above the crucial level and expected to break the resistance.

Technical Indicators:

Technically KLCI is having a bullish trend on the chart where CCI is @121.03 & RSI is about to enter in the overbought range @62.83

KLCI WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	1851.61
HIGH	1870.89
LOW	1849.68
CLOSE	1860.98
CHANGE (In Points)	8.29
% CHANGE	0.44 %

STI & KLCI Technical Report for 23rd April

Market Review for STI:
Today STI Opened at 3258.56 and came in a bullish trend after a consolidate move for last three days, it made a high of 3277.53 and closed at the same. It formed a green candle for the day.

STI Day Performance				Open	3258.56
High	3277.53	% Change	0.67%	Close	3277.53
Low	3255.64	Volume	2063.7M	Fall	122
Change(Points)	21.70	Rise	296	Unch	654

Market forecast for STI:
A Green candle with a long real body was formed for the day with a short shadow. After three days of range bound trading today STI made a long candle for the day & take a bullish move. Marubozu pattern was formed for the day. Today STI break the high of 24th July 2013 a high point from last 11 Months, expected to take an up move for the coming sessions.

STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1	3267
Support 2	3255
Support 3	3240
Resistance 1	3288
Resistance 2	3307
Resistance 3	3320

Technical indicators:
RSI is above the centre line @75.36 is about to move in overbought level. Where CCI is @ 149.49.
Important Factor for today:-

• Mapletree Logistics Trust posted 1.89 Sg Cents for its Q4DPU
• Ascendas Reit posted 3.5 Sg Cents for its Q4 DPU where the distributable income was 85.3 Million
• Gerard Ee elected as a President of Institute of Singapore Chartered Accountants.

Market Review for KLCI:
A short green candle was formed for the day where KLCI opened at 1862.90 and made a high of 1866.42 and gave the same closing with a low of 1816.90

KLCI Day Performance				Open	1862.90
High	1866.42	% Change	0.19%	Close	1866.42
Low	1861.90	Volume	2609 M	Fall	404
Change(Points)	3.49	Rise	455	Unch	1289

Market forecast for KLCI:
 After taking a long up move yesterday KLCI maintain itself above the support level of 1850 and now is in an uptrend as a green candle with a little lower shadow was formed for the day. By observing the last three trading session KLCI is now in an uptrend and buyers are more interested now.
Technical indicators:
RSI is above the centre line @64.26 else CCI is @175.54

Singapore & Malaysia Stock market Analysis for 22nd April

Market Review for STI:
Today STI opened at 3260.78 and made a high of 3264.21 later pressure was seen in the market and it made a low of 3250.91 while closed at 3255.83. There was the volume of 1706.5Million.

STI Day Performance
Open	3260.78
High	3264.21
Low	3250.91
Close	3255.83
Change(Points)	2.03
% Change	0.06%
Volume	1706.5M
Rise	176
Fall	217
Unch	679

Market forecast for STI:
A Red candle was formed for the day a Spinning Top candle was formed with a short real body and short upper and lower shadow. As published in our weekly report; that STI would take some corrections, today it formed a red candle for the day and is expected to be in same correction mode for few trading sessions.
Technical indicators:
RSI is above the centre line @72.09 is about to move in overbought level. Where CCI is @ 130.87.

STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1	3245
Support 2	3230
Support 3	3215
Resistance 1	3265
Resistance 2	3280
Resistance 3	3295

Important Factor for today:-

• CapitaMall Asia made a jump of 2.8% to S$75.3 million in Net Profit for 1Q 2014.
• RH Perto Gas Investments proposed sale of 49% Stake in RHP for US $ 2.79Million
• Shares in Catalist listed SHC Capital Asia surged on Monday that it is discussing a sale of its core insurance business.
• Trading in Chemoil will be suspended from 5 May 2014 as Friday 2nd May will be the last trading for Chemoil. 

Market Review for KLCI:

Today KLCI opened at 1851.61 and took the up move, made a high of 1864.94 and gave closing near to its high at 1862.93 while at the time of opening KLCI opened down with a lower side of 1849.68.

KLCI Day Performance
Open	1851.61
High	1864.94
Low	1849.68
Close	1862.93
Change(Points)	10.24
% Change	0.55%
Volume	2608.9M
Rise	523
Fall	326
Unch	1299

Market forecast for KLCI:
A long green candle was formed for the day with a long real body and short upper and lower shadow. As KLCI has recovered from down side and now is in a complete uptrend and looks forward to break its resistance of 1872 in the coming trading days.
Technical indicators:
RSI is above the centre line @62.42 else CCI is @111.71

KLCI LEVELS
Support 1	1852
Support 2	1840
Support 3	1825
Resistance 1	1872
Resistance 2	1885
Resistance 3	1899

STI Singapore : Weekly Technical Analysis VIew

Weekly Technical view on STI

Weekly wrap of STI:

This was a bullish week for the STI, opened at3209 and an uptrend was observed which took STI for a new levels and made a high of 3259 further closed at 3253. A long green candle was formed for the week.

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3220	3190	3160	3270	3395	3335

Macroeconomic factors:

• Singapore made 5.1% growth in Q1 GDP on YOY basis as the announcement made by the Ministry of Trade & Industry.
• The major sector that lead the GDP growth was manufacturing which grew 8% on YOY basis and 7% in the previous Quarter.
• Slowdown in the annual economy growth of China between Jan-Mar 2014 to 7.4 % from 7.7 % in the previous three months.
• Fall of 9.5 % in Retail Sales for Feb on YOY basis due to seasonal factors as Chinese New Year took place in Feb last Year.
• Singapore’s March home sales dropped to a three-month low as first-quarter private residential prices fell the most in five years.
• Home sales slid 83% to 480 units last month compared with 2,793 in the same period a year ago, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority released today. Sales fell 35% from February, the data showed.
• Singapore Non-Oil Domestic export fell 6.6 on where there was a jump of 8.9% in Feb. Reason for the downfall was decline in electronics and non-electronics shipments, electronic export droped 3.7% Feb where 16.1% in Mar.

Technical Indicators:

Technical Indicators are showing the uptrend where RSI is above the centre line @61.21 else CCI is @ 179.12 which means that there is still a fair move for STI to take upside.

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3209.42
HIGH	3259.07
LOW	3205.96
CLOSE	3253.80
CHANGE (In Points)	55.58
% CHANGE	1.73

 STI Market Forecast for week ahead:

For this week STI almost covered a range of 43 points with few gap up opening on the daily chart, else STI broke the major resistance in this week, the next resistance for STI comes at 3285 and support at 3220 as it formed a long green candle, for the day with a short upper and lower shadow.

For the coming week a consolidation phase is expected more as there were the gap up openings in few trading sessions, else STI can break the resistance with good fundamentals & economic news for the next week.

KLCI Market Forecast for week ahead

KLCI is performing at its crucial support of 1850 and for the whole week it moving around the same level a tight range can be noticed on the chart with a little low volume for the coming week a recovery is expected in KLCI and the major resistance would be @1863 else support @ 1840.

COMEX Report Of Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold advanced overnight to open at the intraday low of 1360.50/1361.50 following the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

It surged to a high of 1370.50/1371.50 on dollar weakness as yields on 10- year U.S. Treasuries gave back some of last week’s gains. The metal finally closed the day at 1369.50/1370.50.

Gold broke out of its range of the past two weeks, taking out resistance just below 1360, and closing higher at 1370. RSI has turned back to test the 70 level, confirming the bullish move. The next resistance is at 1374, the 76.4% retracement of the move from 1433 to 1182. We are bullish so long as we hold the recent lows in the 1326/27 area.

SILVER

Silver opened the day only slightly higher at 20.98/21.03. Copper sold off to a three-and-a-half year low on worries about credit troubles in China, which can potentially lead to an oversupply of the metal. 

This tempered silver’s strength and saw the metal dip to a low of 20.93/20.98 before recovering to a high of 21.39/21.44 on the back of gold. It closed the session at 21.33/21.38.

Silver also closed higher at 21.38. There is a daily downtrend in place since the high on Feb 24th. While it is still possible that the formation since silver’s breakout is a bullish flag, the flag retraced a considerable part of the breakout, which is not ideal. Also there is a pattern of declining RSI. We are currently neutral until silver can make a break out of its current downtrend. Support is at the recent low of 20.61.

The gold-silver ratio is trading lower at 64.11. Uptrend support comes in at 62.58. Resistance is at the 2014 high of 65.37

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery tumbled to a session low of $2.908 a pound, the weakest level since July 2010.

Copper last traded at $2.917 a pound during European morning hours, down 1.2%, or $0.035 cents. The May copper contract lost 2.62%, or $0.079 cents, on Tuesday to settle at $2.952 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.844 a pound, the low from July 2010 and resistance at $3.057 a pound, the high from March 11.

Investors remained cautious after data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports fell 18.1% on a year-over-year basis in February, confounding expectations for a 6.8% increase, following a rise of 10.6% in January.

The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. Analysts had expected a surplus of $14.5 billion in February.

The downbeat data highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world's biggest consumer of the industrial metal.

Copper prices plunged to the lowest level since July 2010 on Wednesday, amid ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $98.14 a barrel, up 0.15%, after hitting an overnight session low of $97.57 a barrel and a high of $99.63 a barrel.

Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled down 0.5%, at $108.02 a barrel on Wednesday. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.2 million barrels in the week ended March 7, well above market expectations for a 2.2-million barrel increase.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 370 million barrels as of last week.

The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a drop of 2 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles decreased by 533,000 barrels, below expectations for a withdrawal of 867,000 barrels.

Oil prices came under additional pressure on reports that the U.S. plans to release up to 5 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves, according to a government source.

Crude oil prices gained in early Asian trade on Thursday, shrugging off bearish data overnight that revealed U.S. stockpiles shot up last week and sent the near-term contract to a one-month low, with the focus now on data from China on industrial output and retail sales.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1353	1336	1379	1388
SILVER	21.07	20.68	21.45	21.83
COPPER	2.9923	2.9586	3.0533	3.1183
CRUDE	97.16	96.33	99.21	101.26

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Core Retail Sales m/m	0.0%	0.2%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Retail Sales m/m	-0.4%	0.3%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	323K	334K	STRONG

Core Retail Sales m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 14, 2014
FF Notes	Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends;
Also Called	Retail Sales Ex Autos;

Retail Sales m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 14, 2014
FF Notes	This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data;
Why Traders Care	It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;
Also Called	Advance Retail Sales;

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Mar 20, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

COMEX Report: Technical Analysis Outlook

GOLD

Gold remained unchanged overnight to open at 1351.00/1352.00. It moved to a high of 1351.25/1352.25 before declining quickly to a low of 1326.50/1327.50 alongside crude futures as the dollar strengthened while U.S. 10-Year Treasury prices fell sharply following better-than-expected U.S. jobs data that supports further tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing program. Thereafter, the metal recovered and traded within range to close the day at 1337.50/1338.50. 

Gold closed higher this week at 1338, the fifth straight up-week (though last week was essentially unchanged). However, we were unable to close substantially through the resistance level at 1337.83, which is the 61.8% retracement of the last downtrend from August to December 2013. Nevertheless, the uptrend is gaining momentum, with RSI (weekly) currently at 56.87. There is strong support from 1301 to 1308, which represents two 50% Fibonacci retracement levels: the 50% retracement of the long- last downtrend. After 1338, the next resistance level is 1361, the swing high from November 2013.

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight to open at the session high of 21.38/21.43. It followed gold to a low of 20.74/20.79, prior to concluding the session at 20.89/20.94, which is close to the 100day moving average of 20.92.

Silver closed at 20.89, the second lower close in a row. There is a strong downtrend off the 2011 high that is acting as resistance; this currently comes in at 22.14. Support comes in at the bottom of the 2014 range at 19.00. Silver remains trapped within a sideways trend and we are currently neutral.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at the current 64.03 level. Support from the uptrend comes in at 61.54. We are bullish the ratio so long as the previous low at 59.92 holds, targeting a retracement back to the 2013 high of 67.47.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery rose to a session high of $3.231 a pound, the most since February 26.

Copper prices last traded at $3.222 a pound during European morning hours, up 0.25%.

The May copper contract rallied 1.34% on Tuesday to settle at $3.214 a pound, as investor demand for riskier assets improved amid easing tensions over the political and military crisis between Russian and Ukraine.

Futures were likely to find support at $3.166 a pound, the low from March 4 and resistance at $3.239 a pound, the high from February 26.

China has set its gross domestic product growth target for 2014 at 7.5%, as widely expected, and will keep consumer inflation at 3.5%, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday.

The latest meeting of the legislature, the first to be overseen by President Xi Jinping and Premier Keqiang, comes amid lingering concerns over the health of the country’s economy.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Copper prices rose to a one-week high on Wednesday, as China’s National People’s Congress annual meeting kicked off earlier in the day.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in April US$102.37 a barrel, down 0.20%.

NYMEX crude for April settled up 1%, or $1.02 a barrel, to end Friday at $102.58 a barrel, falling $0.01 cent on the week.

Last week, an upbeat jobs report eased concerns over soft U.S. economic data seen in the past few months and underlined the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to gradually taper its bond-buying program.

Gains were limited as concerns over Chinese domestic bond defaults underlined worries over the health of the Asian nation’s economy.

Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports collapsed 18.1% in February from a year earlier, disappointing expectations for a 6.8% increase.

Imports rose 10.1%, compared to forecasts for an 8% increase. According to customs data, China's February crude oil imports totaled 23.05 million metric tons, down 18.1% from January.

The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. Analysts had expected a surplus of $14.5 billion in February.

A separate report showed that consumer price inflation in China rose 2% in February from a year earlier, in line with expectations, while producer price inflation declined 2%, compared to forecasts for a 1.9% drop.

The disappointing data highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world's second biggest oil consumer.

In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating what will be closely-watched data on U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment for further indications of the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

Crude oil prices eased in early Asian trade Monday, but remain supported by events in the Ukraine where tension over moves by neighboring Russia, the world's top oil producer, in the Crimean region have heightened concerns over supply..

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1325	1312	1352	1365
SILVER	20.59	20.28	21.37	21.84
COPPER	3.1115	3.0665	3.2365	3.3165
CRUDE	101.79	100.45	103.13	103.69

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
4.45P.M	FOMC Member Plosser Speaks			MEDIUM

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

Description	Due to participate in a panel discussion titled "Monetary Policy and Banks and the Rise of Global Protectionism" at the Bank of France, in Paris;
Source	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia(latest release)
Speaker	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser;
Usual Effect	More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes	FOMC voting member 2008, 2011, and 2014;
Why Traders Care	Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand	Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude: Comex Technical Outlook

SILVER

Silver advanced overnight to open at 19.25/19.30. It touched a low of 19.21/19.26 before climbing to a high of 19.62/19.67 and prior to concluding the session at 19.39/19.44. Free Trial

Silver closed higher today at 19.39. There is a base of support in the high 18’s/low 19’s, where we have traded on seven occasions since the beginning of December. There is also a strong downtrend in place on the daily chart, which currently comes in at 20.04. Silver has traded in a sideways range since early December, so we would need a breach of support at 18.83 or of resistance at 20.64 to get excited about the metal. 

The gold-silver ratio is trading close to unchanged at 64.94. It remains in a well-defined uptrend with support currently at 61.50. Resistance is at the major high of 67.56.

Silver gained after data showed that manufacturing activity in the U.S. deteriorated to the lowest level since June.

Caution over emerging markets, U.S. economy and Fed’s move to taper its stimulus program remain crucial to the metal’s moves

Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 0.66% i.e. 65.84 tonnes to 10095.06 tonnes from 10029.22 tonnes.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
SILVER	19.10	18.81	19.66	19.92

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

GOLD

Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1247.00/1248.00. It touched a low of 1245.25/1246.25 before surging to a high of 1265.50/1266.50 as the dollar retreated while equity markets slipped following weaker-than-expected U.S. ISM data that showed a decline in manufacturing activity, which included a significant drop in new manufacturing orders, amidst continuing pressure on emerging markets. The metal then consolidated later in the afternoon to close the day at 1259.50/1260.50.

Gold closed higher today at 1260. Price action has been very lackluster, and the past two trading sessions have traded inside of Thursday’s big down-day. A nice clean break through the recent high of 1279, which is also a Fibonacci retracement level (38.2% of the August to December 2013 downtrend), would improve the outlook considerably and would shift our view out of neutral. We note the MACD is on the verge of triggering a sell signal.

Gold rose as prices were supported after a worse than expected U.S. manufacturing report weighed on the dollar and global equities.

ISM said its index of national factory activity fell to its lowest level since May 2013 at 51.3 last month, from a recently revised 56.5 in December.

U.S. manufacturing activity slowed sharply in January on the back of the biggest drop in new orders in 33 years.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
GOLD	1245	1230	1270	1281

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery fell to a session low of USD3.184 a pound, the weakest since December 4, before trimming losses to trade at USD3.194 during European morning hours, down 0.1%.

The March copper contract settled down 0.91% on Friday to end at USD3.197 a pound. Copper futures were likely to find support at USD3.168 a pound, the low from December 2 and resistance at USD3.230 a pound, the high from January 31.

Copper prices have declined in each of the past eight sessions leading up to Monday, the longest losing streak since January 1996.

Data released earlier showed that China's official non-manufacturing PMI slipped to its lowest level since December 2008 in January, falling to 53.4 from 54.6 in December.

The deterioration in the services sector adds to declining manufacturing PMIs. Data released over the weekend showed that China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 50.5 in January from 51.0 in December.

Last week, private sector data from HSBC confirmed a contraction in China’s manufacturing sector for the first time since July.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
COPPER	3.1715	3.1595	3.1990	3.2145

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE

On Monday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD96.54 a barrel and a high of USD96.73 a barrel. The March contract settled at USD96.65 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD95.22 a barrel, the low from Jan. 27, and resistance at USD98.58 a barrel, Thursday's high.

Oil prices suffered after the Institute for Supply Management said its widely-watch manufacturing gauge fell to a seven-month low in January, as new orders slumped.

The ISM’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 51.3 in January, down from 57.0 in December.

Analysts were expecting the index to inch down to 56.4 in January.

The report added new order growth fell at its fastest rate in 33 years, with the new orders index dropping to 51.2 from 64.4 in December. The employment index fell from 55.8 in December to 52.3, the weakest since June.

New York-traded crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses in Asian trading on Tuesday after U.S. manufacturing gauges missed market expectations and painted a picture of a still-weak U.S. economy that will demand less fuel and energy going forward than once anticipated..

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
CRUDE	95.81	95.20	97.50	95.56

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	Factory Orders m/m	1.8%	-1.9%	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	45.2	46	LOW

Factory Orders m/m

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 6, 2014
FF Notes	This report contains a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data released about a week earlier, and fresh data regarding non-durable goods;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Source	TIPP(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Mar 4, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Derived Via	Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies;
Also Called	IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence;