COMEX Report Of Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold advanced overnight to open at the intraday low of 1360.50/1361.50 following the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

It surged to a high of 1370.50/1371.50 on dollar weakness as yields on 10- year U.S. Treasuries gave back some of last week’s gains. The metal finally closed the day at 1369.50/1370.50.

Gold broke out of its range of the past two weeks, taking out resistance just below 1360, and closing higher at 1370. RSI has turned back to test the 70 level, confirming the bullish move. The next resistance is at 1374, the 76.4% retracement of the move from 1433 to 1182. We are bullish so long as we hold the recent lows in the 1326/27 area.

SILVER

Silver opened the day only slightly higher at 20.98/21.03. Copper sold off to a three-and-a-half year low on worries about credit troubles in China, which can potentially lead to an oversupply of the metal. 

This tempered silver’s strength and saw the metal dip to a low of 20.93/20.98 before recovering to a high of 21.39/21.44 on the back of gold. It closed the session at 21.33/21.38.

Silver also closed higher at 21.38. There is a daily downtrend in place since the high on Feb 24th. While it is still possible that the formation since silver’s breakout is a bullish flag, the flag retraced a considerable part of the breakout, which is not ideal. Also there is a pattern of declining RSI. We are currently neutral until silver can make a break out of its current downtrend. Support is at the recent low of 20.61.

The gold-silver ratio is trading lower at 64.11. Uptrend support comes in at 62.58. Resistance is at the 2014 high of 65.37

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery tumbled to a session low of $2.908 a pound, the weakest level since July 2010.

Copper last traded at $2.917 a pound during European morning hours, down 1.2%, or $0.035 cents. The May copper contract lost 2.62%, or $0.079 cents, on Tuesday to settle at $2.952 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.844 a pound, the low from July 2010 and resistance at $3.057 a pound, the high from March 11.

Investors remained cautious after data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports fell 18.1% on a year-over-year basis in February, confounding expectations for a 6.8% increase, following a rise of 10.6% in January.

The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. Analysts had expected a surplus of $14.5 billion in February.

The downbeat data highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world's biggest consumer of the industrial metal.

Copper prices plunged to the lowest level since July 2010 on Wednesday, amid ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $98.14 a barrel, up 0.15%, after hitting an overnight session low of $97.57 a barrel and a high of $99.63 a barrel.

Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled down 0.5%, at $108.02 a barrel on Wednesday. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.2 million barrels in the week ended March 7, well above market expectations for a 2.2-million barrel increase.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 370 million barrels as of last week.

The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a drop of 2 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles decreased by 533,000 barrels, below expectations for a withdrawal of 867,000 barrels.

Oil prices came under additional pressure on reports that the U.S. plans to release up to 5 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves, according to a government source.

Crude oil prices gained in early Asian trade on Thursday, shrugging off bearish data overnight that revealed U.S. stockpiles shot up last week and sent the near-term contract to a one-month low, with the focus now on data from China on industrial output and retail sales.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1353	1336	1379	1388
SILVER	21.07	20.68	21.45	21.83
COPPER	2.9923	2.9586	3.0533	3.1183
CRUDE	97.16	96.33	99.21	101.26

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Core Retail Sales m/m	0.0%	0.2%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Retail Sales m/m	-0.4%	0.3%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	323K	334K	STRONG

Core Retail Sales m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 14, 2014
FF Notes	Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends;
Also Called	Retail Sales Ex Autos;

Retail Sales m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 14, 2014
FF Notes	This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data;
Why Traders Care	It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;
Also Called	Advance Retail Sales;

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Mar 20, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

COMEX Report: Technical Analysis Outlook

GOLD

Gold remained unchanged overnight to open at 1351.00/1352.00. It moved to a high of 1351.25/1352.25 before declining quickly to a low of 1326.50/1327.50 alongside crude futures as the dollar strengthened while U.S. 10-Year Treasury prices fell sharply following better-than-expected U.S. jobs data that supports further tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing program. Thereafter, the metal recovered and traded within range to close the day at 1337.50/1338.50. 

Gold closed higher this week at 1338, the fifth straight up-week (though last week was essentially unchanged). However, we were unable to close substantially through the resistance level at 1337.83, which is the 61.8% retracement of the last downtrend from August to December 2013. Nevertheless, the uptrend is gaining momentum, with RSI (weekly) currently at 56.87. There is strong support from 1301 to 1308, which represents two 50% Fibonacci retracement levels: the 50% retracement of the long- last downtrend. After 1338, the next resistance level is 1361, the swing high from November 2013.

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight to open at the session high of 21.38/21.43. It followed gold to a low of 20.74/20.79, prior to concluding the session at 20.89/20.94, which is close to the 100day moving average of 20.92.

Silver closed at 20.89, the second lower close in a row. There is a strong downtrend off the 2011 high that is acting as resistance; this currently comes in at 22.14. Support comes in at the bottom of the 2014 range at 19.00. Silver remains trapped within a sideways trend and we are currently neutral.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at the current 64.03 level. Support from the uptrend comes in at 61.54. We are bullish the ratio so long as the previous low at 59.92 holds, targeting a retracement back to the 2013 high of 67.47.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery rose to a session high of $3.231 a pound, the most since February 26.

Copper prices last traded at $3.222 a pound during European morning hours, up 0.25%.

The May copper contract rallied 1.34% on Tuesday to settle at $3.214 a pound, as investor demand for riskier assets improved amid easing tensions over the political and military crisis between Russian and Ukraine.

Futures were likely to find support at $3.166 a pound, the low from March 4 and resistance at $3.239 a pound, the high from February 26.

China has set its gross domestic product growth target for 2014 at 7.5%, as widely expected, and will keep consumer inflation at 3.5%, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday.

The latest meeting of the legislature, the first to be overseen by President Xi Jinping and Premier Keqiang, comes amid lingering concerns over the health of the country’s economy.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Copper prices rose to a one-week high on Wednesday, as China’s National People’s Congress annual meeting kicked off earlier in the day.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in April US$102.37 a barrel, down 0.20%.

NYMEX crude for April settled up 1%, or $1.02 a barrel, to end Friday at $102.58 a barrel, falling $0.01 cent on the week.

Last week, an upbeat jobs report eased concerns over soft U.S. economic data seen in the past few months and underlined the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to gradually taper its bond-buying program.

Gains were limited as concerns over Chinese domestic bond defaults underlined worries over the health of the Asian nation’s economy.

Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports collapsed 18.1% in February from a year earlier, disappointing expectations for a 6.8% increase.

Imports rose 10.1%, compared to forecasts for an 8% increase. According to customs data, China's February crude oil imports totaled 23.05 million metric tons, down 18.1% from January.

The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. Analysts had expected a surplus of $14.5 billion in February.

A separate report showed that consumer price inflation in China rose 2% in February from a year earlier, in line with expectations, while producer price inflation declined 2%, compared to forecasts for a 1.9% drop.

The disappointing data highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world's second biggest oil consumer.

In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating what will be closely-watched data on U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment for further indications of the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

Crude oil prices eased in early Asian trade Monday, but remain supported by events in the Ukraine where tension over moves by neighboring Russia, the world's top oil producer, in the Crimean region have heightened concerns over supply..

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1325	1312	1352	1365
SILVER	20.59	20.28	21.37	21.84
COPPER	3.1115	3.0665	3.2365	3.3165
CRUDE	101.79	100.45	103.13	103.69

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
4.45P.M	FOMC Member Plosser Speaks			MEDIUM

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

Description	Due to participate in a panel discussion titled "Monetary Policy and Banks and the Rise of Global Protectionism" at the Bank of France, in Paris;
Source	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia(latest release)
Speaker	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser;
Usual Effect	More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes	FOMC voting member 2008, 2011, and 2014;
Why Traders Care	Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand	Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude: Comex Technical Outlook

SILVER

Silver advanced overnight to open at 19.25/19.30. It touched a low of 19.21/19.26 before climbing to a high of 19.62/19.67 and prior to concluding the session at 19.39/19.44. Free Trial

Silver closed higher today at 19.39. There is a base of support in the high 18’s/low 19’s, where we have traded on seven occasions since the beginning of December. There is also a strong downtrend in place on the daily chart, which currently comes in at 20.04. Silver has traded in a sideways range since early December, so we would need a breach of support at 18.83 or of resistance at 20.64 to get excited about the metal. 

The gold-silver ratio is trading close to unchanged at 64.94. It remains in a well-defined uptrend with support currently at 61.50. Resistance is at the major high of 67.56.

Silver gained after data showed that manufacturing activity in the U.S. deteriorated to the lowest level since June.

Caution over emerging markets, U.S. economy and Fed’s move to taper its stimulus program remain crucial to the metal’s moves

Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 0.66% i.e. 65.84 tonnes to 10095.06 tonnes from 10029.22 tonnes.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
SILVER	19.10	18.81	19.66	19.92

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

GOLD

Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1247.00/1248.00. It touched a low of 1245.25/1246.25 before surging to a high of 1265.50/1266.50 as the dollar retreated while equity markets slipped following weaker-than-expected U.S. ISM data that showed a decline in manufacturing activity, which included a significant drop in new manufacturing orders, amidst continuing pressure on emerging markets. The metal then consolidated later in the afternoon to close the day at 1259.50/1260.50.

Gold closed higher today at 1260. Price action has been very lackluster, and the past two trading sessions have traded inside of Thursday’s big down-day. A nice clean break through the recent high of 1279, which is also a Fibonacci retracement level (38.2% of the August to December 2013 downtrend), would improve the outlook considerably and would shift our view out of neutral. We note the MACD is on the verge of triggering a sell signal.

Gold rose as prices were supported after a worse than expected U.S. manufacturing report weighed on the dollar and global equities.

ISM said its index of national factory activity fell to its lowest level since May 2013 at 51.3 last month, from a recently revised 56.5 in December.

U.S. manufacturing activity slowed sharply in January on the back of the biggest drop in new orders in 33 years.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
GOLD	1245	1230	1270	1281

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery fell to a session low of USD3.184 a pound, the weakest since December 4, before trimming losses to trade at USD3.194 during European morning hours, down 0.1%.

The March copper contract settled down 0.91% on Friday to end at USD3.197 a pound. Copper futures were likely to find support at USD3.168 a pound, the low from December 2 and resistance at USD3.230 a pound, the high from January 31.

Copper prices have declined in each of the past eight sessions leading up to Monday, the longest losing streak since January 1996.

Data released earlier showed that China's official non-manufacturing PMI slipped to its lowest level since December 2008 in January, falling to 53.4 from 54.6 in December.

The deterioration in the services sector adds to declining manufacturing PMIs. Data released over the weekend showed that China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 50.5 in January from 51.0 in December.

Last week, private sector data from HSBC confirmed a contraction in China’s manufacturing sector for the first time since July.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
COPPER	3.1715	3.1595	3.1990	3.2145

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE

On Monday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD96.54 a barrel and a high of USD96.73 a barrel. The March contract settled at USD96.65 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD95.22 a barrel, the low from Jan. 27, and resistance at USD98.58 a barrel, Thursday's high.

Oil prices suffered after the Institute for Supply Management said its widely-watch manufacturing gauge fell to a seven-month low in January, as new orders slumped.

The ISM’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 51.3 in January, down from 57.0 in December.

Analysts were expecting the index to inch down to 56.4 in January.

The report added new order growth fell at its fastest rate in 33 years, with the new orders index dropping to 51.2 from 64.4 in December. The employment index fell from 55.8 in December to 52.3, the weakest since June.

New York-traded crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses in Asian trading on Tuesday after U.S. manufacturing gauges missed market expectations and painted a picture of a still-weak U.S. economy that will demand less fuel and energy going forward than once anticipated..

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
CRUDE	95.81	95.20	97.50	95.56

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	Factory Orders m/m	1.8%	-1.9%	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	45.2	46	LOW

Factory Orders m/m

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 6, 2014
FF Notes	This report contains a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data released about a week earlier, and fresh data regarding non-durable goods;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Source	TIPP(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Mar 4, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Derived Via	Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies;
Also Called	IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence;

COMEX Commodity Technical Outlook

GOLD

Gold declined overnight to open at 1238.00/1239.00. It dropped to a low of 1233.75/1234.75 on dollar strength following better-thanexpected NY Fed manufacturing data, which was at its highest level in 20 months, while the benchmark S&P 500 index reached a record high. The metal then surged amidst unexpected buying pressure to a high of 1242.00/1243.00 before concluding the day marginally flat at 1239.00/1240.00.

 Gold closed lower again today at 1240, slightly breaching the daily uptrend that has been in place since the 1182 low on December 30. Support is at the recent 1218 low. The short-term uptrend still looks constructive despite today’s lower close, so long as 1218 holds. Resistance is at the 1268 high, and a break of this level would be bullish.

 Gold settled flat as increasing optimism over global economic growth weighed on the metal’s appeal as an alternative investment.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for the second consecutive week last week

Gold base import tariff was slashed to $407 per 10 grams from $392 per 10 grams after the global prices rose above $1,200/ounces.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1235	1231	1245	1254

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight to open at 20.09/20.14. It dipped below $20 an ounce to a low of 19.90/19.95 before climbing to a high of 20.20/20.25 and then falling back to close the session at 20.12/20.17.

Silver closed lower today at 20.17, remaining trapped within a sideways range. Support is at the major low at 18.83, and resistance is at yesterday’s high in the 20.64 area.

The gold-silver ratio is slightly higher at 61.67. There is uptrend support in the 60.99 area.

Silver seen under pressure as data showing a strengthening U.S. labor market and improving regional manufacturing activity dampened buying interest.

The better labor market tone was captured by a survey showing an acceleration in manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.

World Bank raised its forecast for global growth for the first time in three years as advanced economies started to pick up pace.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.93	19.81	20.26	20.49

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

  

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.341 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.5%.
Comex copper prices held in a range between USD3.339 a pound and USD3.369 a pound. The March contract ended Wednesday’s session up 0.66% to settle at USD3.358 a pound after upbeat U.S. data bolstered sentiment on the economic outlook.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.308 a pound, the low from January 15 and resistance at USD3.375 a pound, the high from January 8.
Data released Wednesday showed that manufacturing activity in the New York-region expanded at the fastest pace since May 2012 in January as new orders rose sharply.
A separate report showed that U.S. producer price inflation rose at the strongest rate in six months Copper futures declined on Thursday, as market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the future course of monetary policy.in December.

 Copper dropped weighed down by expectations of increased supplies later in the year, but signs of low availability for immediate consumption limited the decline. Price falls were capped by concerns about a lack of short-term supply in the physical market due to low stockpiles of copper in LME warehousesCopper stocks in LME-registered warehouses have been falling steadily since September, and are at around one-year lows.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.3241	3.3058	3.3651	3.3878

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD94.20 a barrel during U.S. trading, up 0.11%. On Thursday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD94.15 a barrel and a high of USD94.28 a barrel.
The March contract settled at USD94.26 a barrel on Thursday. Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.65 a barrel, Monday's low, and resistance at USD94.81 a barrel, Wednesday's high.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported earlier that its manufacturing index improved to 9.4 in January from 6.4 in December.

 Analysts had expected a reading of 8.6, and the upbeat reading sparked hopes for more robust activity in the nation's factories will hike demand for energy.Crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses during Asian trading hours on Friday after a steep drop in crude oil imports by the U.S. and the market assessment that the high demand seen during the last week is unlikely to sustain.

Crude-oil stockpiles in the U.S. were down by 7.7 million barrels at 350.2 million barrels in the week ended  Jan. 10. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	93.49	92.45	94.53	95.10

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7:00pm	Building Permits	1.01M	1.01M	STRONG
8:25pm	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	82.5	83.47	STRONG
8:30pm	JOLTS Job Openings	3.93M	3.97M	STRONG

Building Permits

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 19, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Source	University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Feb 14, 2014
FF Notes	There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via	Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;

JOLTS Job Openings

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 11, 2014
FF Notes	It's released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand	Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;

COMEX Report: Commodity Technical Outlook

GOLD

Gold edged lower overnight to open at 1227.00/1228.00. Shortly after open, it briefly touched a high of 1228.00/1229.00 before declining quickly to a low of 1218.75/1219.75 as global equities edged higher and the Dollar strengthened following robust employment data from the U.S. that showed a better-than-expected increase in private sector jobs. Choppy trades for the remainder of the session led the metal to close higher at 1225.50/1226.50.

Gold tried lower today but held above our December high pivot of 1218. The close at 1225 keeps us in the bullish up cycle that started off 1882 on December 31. We like the idea of a test above 1252 while 1218 remains firm.

Gold ended with losses weighed down by upbeat U.S. private-sector jobs data

Minutes of Fed’s meeting, showed many members wanted to proceed with caution in trimming the central bank’s $85 billion monthly asset purchases.

SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 1.50 tonnes i.e. -0.19% to 793.12 tonnes from 794.62 tonnes. More Updates

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1218	1210	1232	1239

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

 SILVER

Silver dropped overnight to open at 19.61/19.66, which was the high of the day. It then followed gold to a low of 19.30/19.35 before recovering to close at 19.51/19.56.

Silver is weak today closing at 19.51. The rejection of Silver near 20.38 has taken the shine off the metal. Major support is not seen until 18.91. 

The Gold-Silver ratio spiked higher again today with the ratio moving above recent high of 62.87. The topside appears the risk in the ratio with key resistance not seen until 64.10 the December 4 high.

Silver dropped after data showed that U.S. non-farm private employment rose at the strongest pace in two years last month.

US non-farm private employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 238,000 in December, easily surpassing expectations for an increase of 200,000

Two top Fed officials said they expected the bank to reduce stimulus at a steady pace. More Updates

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.32	19.01	19.83	20.12

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.360 a pound during European morning trade, little changed on the day. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.355 a pound and USD3.372 a pound.

The March contract ended Tuesday’s session unchanged at USD3.359 a pound. Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.330 a pound, the low from January 6 and resistance at USD3.387 a pound, the high from January 3.
Investors were turning their attention to the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting, due for release later Wednesday, for indications on the possible timing of further reductions in the central bank’s stimulus program.

Copper futures swung between small gains and losses in rangebound trade on Wednesday, as investors remained cautious ahead of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting and the upcoming U.S. jobs report.

Copper ended with losses weighed down by a strong dollar and concerns about economic recovery in China.

Euro zone unemployment was unchanged at a record high for the eighth month in a row in November, but retail sales made the biggest monthly jump in 12 years.

US ADP employment in December grew more than expected, hitting a 13-month high and lifted market optimism toward US December non-farm employment data. More Updates

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.3260	3.3095	3.3680	3.3935

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in February traded at USD92.55 a barrel during Asian morning trade, up 0.23%. On Wednesday New York-traded oil futures held range bound between USD92.48 a barrel and USD92.64 a barrel.
The February contract settled down at USD92.61 a barrel on Wednesday. Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD92.57 a barrel, the low from Dec. 2, and resistance at USD94.58 a barrel, Monday's high.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.68 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 3, beating expectations for a decline of 849,000 barrels. Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 357.9 million barrels as of last week.
The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 6.24 million barrels, significantly higher than expectations for a gain of 2.28 million barrels. 

Crude oil dropped after official data revealed gasoline and distillates stockpiles rose, while falling crude inventories cushioned losses somewhat.

The U.S. EIA said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.68 million barrels

While Libyan officials say production could recover to nearly 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) this week. More Updates

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	91.60	90.97	93.52	94.81

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	339K	337K	STRONG
11.31P.M	30-y Bond Auction	3.9	2.4	LOW

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	CRUDE Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Jan 16, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

30-y Bond Auction

Source	Treasury Direct (latest release)
Measures	Highest yield on 10-year bonds the government sold at auction, and the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect - there are both risk and growth implications;
Frequency	Conducted monthly;
Next Release	Feb 13, 2014
FF Notes	Auction results are reported in an 'X.XX|X.X' format - the first number is the highest interest rate of the bonds sold, and the second number is the bid-to-cover ratio (number of bids made per bid accepted);
Why Traders Care	Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence;
Also Called	Treasury Auction, Note Auction;

'COMEX' Commodity Technical Outlook

SILVER

Silver edged lower overnight to open at 19.41/19.46. It declined to a low of 18.72/18.77 and then spiked to a high of 19.82/19.87 on thinly traded volumes before concluding the session at 19.36/19.41.

Silver had a rough day trading to fresh 6 month lows toward 18.75 before bouncing to close at 19.39. Silver has fallen 36% YOY and still looks like risk is toward our 2013 low of 18.26. The ability to hold this level will be key moving forward as a break opens the 2010 low of 14.68. 

The gold-silver ratio is closing at 61.93. We would expect the 60.00 to 64.00 range to hold for the near future.

Silver yesterday settled flat at 43876 as major exchanges where closed yesterday on New Year holiday

The Conference Board reported earlier that its index of U.S. consumer confidence improved to 78.1 in December from 72.0 in November

The Fed has rolled out multiple rounds of bond purchase since the 2008 financial crisis.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
SILVER	19.32	19.03	20.41	20.99

Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2

GOLD 

Gold moved lower overnight to open at 1196.50/1197.50. It declined to a low of 1182.00/1183.00 while global equities traded near 6-year highs as investors moved away from safe-haven assets on expectations of a strong economic recovery in 2014 and rising benchmark bond yields combined with rising consumer confidence in the U.S. The metal then rose to a session high of 1214.00/1215.00 on low year-end volumes as the Euro appreciated against the Dollar. Thereafter, it traded within range for the rest of the afternoon to finally close at 1203.00/1204.00.

Gold is closing today largely unchanged from yesterday despite having a large range. The metal took a run at the 2013 lows today but fell $2 short at 1182. The failure trade resulted in a $30 bounce to 1213. It has been a bad year for Gold falling -28% YOY. This is the first down year after 12 consecutive years of gains. From a price perspective, the down side in the metal remains vulnerable with $1,087 the 50% of our 12 year range the next massive support.

Gold settled flat at 28418 as all major exchanges in all regions where closed for the New Year.

Gold tumbled in 2013, with Fed’s plan to step away from ultra-loose monetary policy undermining the investor rationale for holding bullion.

Investors had largely shrugged off industry data revealing that the Chicago purchasing managers’ index fell to a seasonally adjusted 59.1.

Technical Levels

	S1	S 2	R 1	R2
GOLD	1192	1181	1231	1249

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.384 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.05%. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.376 a pound and USD3.391 a pound.

Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.368 a pound, the low from December 26 and resistance at USD3.431 a pound, the high from December 24. The March contract settled 0.07% lower on Monday to end at USD3.382 a pound.

Market players looked ahead to U.S. data on consumer confidence and manufacturing activity in the Chicago region later in the day, to gauge if the U.S. economy will be strong enough to allow the Fed to continue withdrawing support through 2014.

Copper futures were little changed on the final trading day of the year on Tuesday, with volumes expected to remain light as many investors already closed books before the end of the year.

Copper settled flat as trading was light as there was no major news and most investors were celebrating the New Year.

Growth in China’s factories slowed slightly in December as export orders and output weakened, official data showed

Dallas Fed service sector index rose to 12.5 in December, but December Chicago PMI was 59.1, falling more sharply than market expectations.

Technical Levels

	S1	S 2	R 1	R 2
COPPER	3.3726	3.3488	3.4141	3.4318

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil futures for February delivery rose by 0.31% while trading at USD 98.73 a barrel.
It earlier traded at a session high USD 98.77 a barrel. Crude oil was likely to find support at USD 99.06 and resistance at USD100.75.

Expectations for Libyan oil exports to resume to near normal levels sent prices falling Tuesday due to the added supply they'd bring to the global market.
Libyan oil operations faced glitches recently due to protesters disrupting production at various oilfields.Expectations for increased exports from South Sudan also nudged prices lower.
Trading volumes were thin as many investors already closed books before the end of the year, reducing liquidity in the market and increasing volatility, which helped exaggerate market moves.

Crude oil futures were higher during the Asian session on Thursday to start the New Year with exports from Libya a continued focus along with strife in South Sudan.

Crude oil nudged higher recovering some losses despite signs the Chinese economy lost some steam late last year.

Bumpy progress on resuming oil production in war-disrupted regions of Africa and the Middle East has been a recent factor in trading.

Crude oil inventories will release on Friday at 9.30pm as US market was closed on Wednesday. Expected inventory is -2.3M.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
CRUDE	97.91	96.67	99.89	100.39

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	338K	334K	STRONG
7.00P.M	ISM Manufacturing PMI	57.3	56.8	STRONG

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Jan 9, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Source	Institute for Supply Management (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 3, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Also Called	Manufacturing ISM Report On Business;
Acro Expand	The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);