FOREX Technical Analysis for Trading

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair had a positive session on Friday, breaking the top of the hammer for the Thursday session which of course is a strong buy signal. However, there is a significant amount of resistance just above going all the way to the 1.37 level at the very least, and as a result we are very hesitant to start buying now. We believe that ultimately this market should continue to stay in the consolidation area that we have been in for some time, thereby making it a very difficult market to get overly excited about. We are on the sidelines.
USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair fell during the course of the session on Friday, closing just below the 101.50 level. With that, it appears that the market is probably going to test the support area just below, and we will be looking for some type of supportive candle in order to go along for the short-term trade. We don’t think of that the market will break down here, simply because we have been so sideways for so long. Until we are told otherwise, we have to believe that this market simply stays in this consolidation area.
GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair went back and forth on Friday, essentially going nowhere. However, the one thing that he did do was show the 1.70 level to be supportive yet again, and with that we believe that this market is in fact trying to wind itself up in order to make a move higher. That move higher should get us to the 1.75 level given enough time, thereby creating a market that can be bought on dips going forward. We have absolutely no interest in selling this pair, and we believe that there is a significant amount of support down at the 1.69 handle.
AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair tried to rally during the session on Friday but gave back up most of the gains. With that, the market tested the 0.9450 level, an area that has been very resistant risk lately. Because of this, we feel that the market will more than likely continue to pull back time and time again until we finally can build up enough momentum to break out above the massive resistance. We believe that the resistance goes all the way to the 0.95 handle, so we are not buyers until we break that level or if we get some type of supportive candle below.
Currency Data for 30 June

Time	Currency	Impact	Detail	Forecast	Previous
4:15am	NZD		Building Consents m/m		1.50%
5:20am	JPY		Prelim Industrial Production m/m	0.90%	-2.80%
6:00am	AUD		MI Inflation Gauge m/m		0.30%
6:30am	NZD	High	ANZ Business Confidence		53.5
Tentative	AUD		HIA New Home Sales m/m		2.90%
7:00am	AUD		Private Sector Credit m/m	0.40%	0.50%
10:30am	JPY		Housing Starts y/y	-10.10%	-3.30%
11:30am	EUR		German Retail Sales m/m	0.80%	-0.90%
1:30pm	EUR		M3 Money Supply y/y	0.70%	0.80%
	EUR		Private Loans y/y	-1.70%	-1.80%
2:00pm	GBP		Net Lending to Individuals m/m	2.5B	2.4B
	GBP		M4 Money Supply m/m	0.20%	-0.20%
	GBP		Mortgage Approvals	62K	63K
2:30pm	EUR	High	CPI Flash Estimate y/y	0.60%	0.50%
	EUR		Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y	0.70%	0.70%
	EUR		Italian Prelim CPI m/m	0.20%	-0.10%
6:00pm	CAD	High	GDP m/m	0.20%	0.10%
7:15pm	USD		Chicago PMI	63.2	65.5
7:30pm	USD	High	Pending Home Sales m/m	1.40%	0.40%

FOREX Overview & Technical Analysis

EUR/USD
The U.S. currency had the biggest weekly decline against the euro in two months as the Fed announced June 18 it will reduce monthly bond-buying while holding its interest-rate target at virtually zero.

 The pound rose for a third week as traders had the most bullish futures wagers since 2007. A gauge of currencies volatility increased from a record low. EUR/USD gains were enabled as the European Commission asserted that the Eurozone’s economic outlook is improving. The Brussels-based institution now sees the Eurozone’s economy expanding by 1.2 per cent this year, up slightly from the 1.1 per cent previously forecast. They also see the unemployment rate in the currency bloc edging to 12 per cent.
Forecast:
The EUR/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, using the 1.35 level as support. That being the case, it looks as we continue to bounce around in this general vicinity, using the 200 pips as the range for the market right now. Long-term traders will probably avoid this market, but short-term traders will probably find it very profitable as it looks very well contained and we have very obvious support and resistance levels. However, if we do get above the 1.37 level, we feel that the market will finally go back towards a 1.40 handle. A move below the 1.35 level since this market down to the 1.33 handle.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY ended the week at the 102 range while traders closely monitor the conflict in Iran moving to safe havens while the geopolitical situation boils over. 

In overseas trading overnight, the dollar briefly rose to around ¥102 thanks to a rise in U.S. long-term interest rates following favorable economic data, including the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s manufacturing index for June. The dollar was later stuck in a narrow range around ¥101.85.
Forecast:
The USD/JPY pair went back and forth over the course of the week, as continue to meander in a fairly tight consolidation area. It’s a bit difficult for longer-term traders to be involved in this market, and until it break well above the 103 level, we do not see much of a trade to the long side. As far selling is concerned, we think that there is simply far too much support below to even consider it at this point in time. Ultimately, this market breaks out to the upside, but it might take a while.
GBP/USD
With the British Pound currently trading close to a five-year high against the US Dollar, news of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting can only help enhance the Pound Sterling to US Dollar exchange rate relationship further. 

Thursday has seen the UK retail sales report fall slightly short of predictions; however it’s still lent the Pound some underlying support. The Pound is displaying stability against the US Dollar as the US Federal Reserve is currently showing no intention of increasing interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee also dropped its initial forecast of a long term interest rate from 4-3.75%.
Forecast:
The GBP/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, but closed above the 1.70 handle, a significant move to the upside. That was a pretty strong barrier for us, and we believe that it opens the way to the 1.75 level as a target. It will probably take a bit of time, but we do believe that eventually that level gets hit. If we pull back from here, we would fully anticipate buyers stepping into the market and lifting the British pound yet again.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD ended the week close to the 94 mark at 0.9383 staying strong after positive data and promises from the Chinese Premier that China will meet its growth expectations regardless of what the government needs to do. 

The currency soared after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The ‘Aussie’ fell from its highest level in two months against the US Dollar after peaking at 94.33, the highest level witnessed since April 10th. The Australian dollar has more than shaken off a slight dovish shift by the Reserve Bank of Australia and has not spent much time beneath 94 cents since the FOMC meeting.  It seems likely the market would at some stage like to inquire as to what kind of supply is above 94.4 cents.
Forecast:
The Australian Dollar is now expected to fall against the US Dollar at a quickening pace as the US economy improves and commodity prices fall. The AUD/USD pair went back and forth over the course of the week forming a neutral candle. This neutral candle is still within the consolidation area that we have been in for some time, thereby not really telling us much other than the pressure to breakout to the upside continues. Because of this, we believe that ultimately the Australian dollar does again, but the market has some work to do to make that happen. If we can get a move above the 0.95 handle, we believe that this market goes to the parity level given enough time.
Currency Data from 23 – 27 june

Date	Time	Currency	Impact	Particular	Forecast	Previous
Mon Jun 23	7:15am	CNY	HIGH	HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI	49.7	49.4
	11:30am	JPY	HIGH	BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
	2:30pm	EUR	HIGH	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	49.6	49.6
	1:00pm	EUR	HIGH	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	52.7	52.3
	7:30pm	USD	HIGH	Existing Home Sales	4.74M	4.65M
Tue Jun 24	2:00pm	GBP	HIGH	Inflation Report Hearings
	7:30pm	USD	HIGH	CB Consumer Confidence	83.6	83
		USD	HIGH	New Home Sales	442K	433K
Wed Jun 25	6:00pm	USD	HIGH	Core Durable Goods Orders m/m	0.003	0.003
Thu Jun 26	3:00pm	GBP	HIGH	BOE Gov Carney Speaks
	6:00pm	USD	HIGH	Unemployment Claims	314K	312K
Fri Jun 27	4:15am	NZD	HIGH	Trade Balance	250M	534M
	All Day	EUR	HIGH	German Prelim CPI m/m	0.002	-0.001
	2:00pm	GBP	HIGH	Current Account	-17.1B	-22.4B

COMEX Trading Technical Analysis Outlook

GOLD

The impact of the positive jobs data released last week can be seen on gold. There are expectations that the gold prices will decline in coming days. The prices was flat yesterday and ended 0.05% day declining margin and closed at $1251.6/oz. The inflation can move higher indicating that the monetary policy winding will be done soon which will result in correction of gold prices.
Forecast
Gold continue to trade in a range .The trading range can be between 1246-1270 as the recent trend in bullion prices are lower .
SILVER

Base metals largely underperformed the last week, still silver managed to perform well .It is still expected to continue the weaker trend and the gold to silver ratio is observed at 66 mark and might trade in a range and may start moving higher gradually .Silver traded marginally higher yesterday and 0.3% increase has been observed diverging from weakness in gold prices. The dollar index rose by 0.3%yesterday, strength in base metals complex led to gains in silver prices.
Forecast
The silver can trade marginally higher and the range bound movement can be observed.
CRUDE

The oil prices increased by 1$ on Monday because of the strong Chinese data and US data which indicates that the growth in economy is healthy and demand is also high .The positive data boosted an oil market already in loss of crude exports from Libya, where violence and civil turmoil have cut oil output by more than 1 million barrels a day .The china’s export have come more than the forecast it is due to the firmer global demand which is rising 7% from a year earlier and increased 9% by April .
Forecast
The up movement in prices can be observed in the coming session .It is also expected to range of 103-105.30 .
TODAY’S DAY RANGE

COMMODITY	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1248	1240	1260	1265
SILVER	18.80	18.70	19.10	19.30
CRUDE	104	103.30	105.20	105.80

 DAY’S HIGHLIGHT

• Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence declined to 8.5-mark in June.
• US API crude oil inventories expected to fall by 1.5 mn bbl. – Reuters.
• China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.5 percent in May.
• Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity declined by 5.4 percent in April.
• Probe into Qingdau port pushed the red metal lower.
• UK’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor grew by 0.5 percent in last month.