TECH TARGETS: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD – UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: Odds for a move above 1.0870/75 are not high.

The 1.0825/30 level that we have talked about since Thursday was finally met with an overnight high of 1.0825. Shorter-term upward momentum is slowing down and while a move above 1.0825/30 would not be surprising, the odds for a break above last December high of 1.0870/75 are not high. Support is at 1.0745 but only a move back below 1.0715 would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

GBP/USD: Bullish: To take half-profit at 1.2545/50.

GBP hit an overnight high of 1.2507 before closing on a strong note. The bullish phase that started on Monday  is still intact. However, from a shorter-term perspective, the rally appears to be running ‘too fast, too soon’ and those who are long should look to book half-profit at 1.2545/50, just below the 1.2570 high seen in late February. Stop-loss is unchanged at 1.2340.

AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7600/0.7730 range.

There is not much to add as we continue to view the current movement as part of a 0.7600/0.7730 consolidation phase even though the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards the low end of the expected 0.7600/0.7730 range. Looking further ahead, as long as there is no sustained drop below 0.7600, we expect the current consolidation to be resolved to the upside.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6950/0.7090 range.

As highlighted yesterday, NZD has likely made a short-term top at 0.7090 earlier this week. The current price action is viewed as part of a consolidation phase that could last for several days. Overall, expect sideway trading from here, likely between 0.6950 and 0.7090.

USD/JPY: Neutral: No signs of stabilization just yet.

While we expected USD to extend its decline towards 111.05/10, the pace of the drop and the ease of which this level is taken out came as a surprise (overnight low of 110.71). Despite being severely oversold, there is no sign of stabilization just yet and further weakness towards the psychology level of 110.00 is not ruled out. Overall, this pair is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move above stay above 112.50.

SGX Technical Analysis Report 17th Dec

Market Review for STI:

Share prices opened lower at 3220.13.Asian markets edged up on Wednesday on bargain-hunting, although gains were limited following more losses on Wall Street, while investors await the outcome of a Federal Reserve policy meet. Marked ended with a bullishness at the level of 3227.23.

STI Day Performance
Open	3220.13
High	3232.64
Low	3200.63
Close	3227.23
Change(Points)	+12.14
% Change	+0.38%
Volume	1208.5M
Rise	174
Fall	192
Unch	829

Market forecast for STI:
It may be expected that STI will take little correction from previous down trend.

STI LEVELS
Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3210	3200	3190	3240	3250	3260

Technical Indicators:
RSI is at 36 and CCI is at 302.

Top Gainers			Top Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
SEMBCORP MARINE.SG	3.16	9.34	GOLDEN AGRI-RES.SG	0.425	-4.49
KEPPEL CORP.SG	8.22	3.01	SIA.SG	11.31	-2.42
SGX.SG	7.54	2.03	CAPITALAND.SG	3.1	-1.27
OLAM INTL.SG	1.98	1.54	SIA ENGINEERING.SG	3.92	-1.01
SEMBCORP IND.SG	4.16	1.46	WILMAR INTL.SG	3.11	-0.64

Important Factor for today:-

• Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew 1.6 per cent in November from a year earlier, as a jump in pharmaceuticals exports outweighed the fall in electronic shipments, figures by trade agency IE Singapore showed on Wednesday.
• Market cap of 23 Offshore Marine firms falls 15.7% in a month amid oil rout .Offshore support services firms listed in Singapore have seen their returns decline by more than one-tenth over the year, in line with falling oil prices, with some of the larger companies among these losing more than half of their returns during the same period.
• Buoyed perhaps by their year-end bonuses and the holiday season, Singapore consumers ended 2014 slightly more optimistic about their finances and the economy
• Asian markets edged up on Wednesday on bargain-hunting, although gains were limited following more losses on Wall Street, while investors await the outcome of a Federal Reserve policy meeting.
• Supplies of western-origin fuel oil into Asia in January could hit its highest in nine months, as multi-year low crude prices fuel higher production of oil products in Europe and the America.
• The Competition Commission of Singapore (CCS) is seeking feedback on the proposed joint venture between the Boeing Company and SIA Engineering Company in Singapore.

FOREX Technical Analysis for Trading

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair had a positive session on Friday, breaking the top of the hammer for the Thursday session which of course is a strong buy signal. However, there is a significant amount of resistance just above going all the way to the 1.37 level at the very least, and as a result we are very hesitant to start buying now. We believe that ultimately this market should continue to stay in the consolidation area that we have been in for some time, thereby making it a very difficult market to get overly excited about. We are on the sidelines.
USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair fell during the course of the session on Friday, closing just below the 101.50 level. With that, it appears that the market is probably going to test the support area just below, and we will be looking for some type of supportive candle in order to go along for the short-term trade. We don’t think of that the market will break down here, simply because we have been so sideways for so long. Until we are told otherwise, we have to believe that this market simply stays in this consolidation area.
GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair went back and forth on Friday, essentially going nowhere. However, the one thing that he did do was show the 1.70 level to be supportive yet again, and with that we believe that this market is in fact trying to wind itself up in order to make a move higher. That move higher should get us to the 1.75 level given enough time, thereby creating a market that can be bought on dips going forward. We have absolutely no interest in selling this pair, and we believe that there is a significant amount of support down at the 1.69 handle.
AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair tried to rally during the session on Friday but gave back up most of the gains. With that, the market tested the 0.9450 level, an area that has been very resistant risk lately. Because of this, we feel that the market will more than likely continue to pull back time and time again until we finally can build up enough momentum to break out above the massive resistance. We believe that the resistance goes all the way to the 0.95 handle, so we are not buyers until we break that level or if we get some type of supportive candle below.
Currency Data for 30 June

Time	Currency	Impact	Detail	Forecast	Previous
4:15am	NZD		Building Consents m/m		1.50%
5:20am	JPY		Prelim Industrial Production m/m	0.90%	-2.80%
6:00am	AUD		MI Inflation Gauge m/m		0.30%
6:30am	NZD	High	ANZ Business Confidence		53.5
Tentative	AUD		HIA New Home Sales m/m		2.90%
7:00am	AUD		Private Sector Credit m/m	0.40%	0.50%
10:30am	JPY		Housing Starts y/y	-10.10%	-3.30%
11:30am	EUR		German Retail Sales m/m	0.80%	-0.90%
1:30pm	EUR		M3 Money Supply y/y	0.70%	0.80%
	EUR		Private Loans y/y	-1.70%	-1.80%
2:00pm	GBP		Net Lending to Individuals m/m	2.5B	2.4B
	GBP		M4 Money Supply m/m	0.20%	-0.20%
	GBP		Mortgage Approvals	62K	63K
2:30pm	EUR	High	CPI Flash Estimate y/y	0.60%	0.50%
	EUR		Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y	0.70%	0.70%
	EUR		Italian Prelim CPI m/m	0.20%	-0.10%
6:00pm	CAD	High	GDP m/m	0.20%	0.10%
7:15pm	USD		Chicago PMI	63.2	65.5
7:30pm	USD	High	Pending Home Sales m/m	1.40%	0.40%

FOREX Overview & Technical Analysis

EUR/USD
The U.S. currency had the biggest weekly decline against the euro in two months as the Fed announced June 18 it will reduce monthly bond-buying while holding its interest-rate target at virtually zero.

 The pound rose for a third week as traders had the most bullish futures wagers since 2007. A gauge of currencies volatility increased from a record low. EUR/USD gains were enabled as the European Commission asserted that the Eurozone’s economic outlook is improving. The Brussels-based institution now sees the Eurozone’s economy expanding by 1.2 per cent this year, up slightly from the 1.1 per cent previously forecast. They also see the unemployment rate in the currency bloc edging to 12 per cent.
Forecast:
The EUR/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, using the 1.35 level as support. That being the case, it looks as we continue to bounce around in this general vicinity, using the 200 pips as the range for the market right now. Long-term traders will probably avoid this market, but short-term traders will probably find it very profitable as it looks very well contained and we have very obvious support and resistance levels. However, if we do get above the 1.37 level, we feel that the market will finally go back towards a 1.40 handle. A move below the 1.35 level since this market down to the 1.33 handle.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY ended the week at the 102 range while traders closely monitor the conflict in Iran moving to safe havens while the geopolitical situation boils over. 

In overseas trading overnight, the dollar briefly rose to around ¥102 thanks to a rise in U.S. long-term interest rates following favorable economic data, including the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s manufacturing index for June. The dollar was later stuck in a narrow range around ¥101.85.
Forecast:
The USD/JPY pair went back and forth over the course of the week, as continue to meander in a fairly tight consolidation area. It’s a bit difficult for longer-term traders to be involved in this market, and until it break well above the 103 level, we do not see much of a trade to the long side. As far selling is concerned, we think that there is simply far too much support below to even consider it at this point in time. Ultimately, this market breaks out to the upside, but it might take a while.
GBP/USD
With the British Pound currently trading close to a five-year high against the US Dollar, news of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting can only help enhance the Pound Sterling to US Dollar exchange rate relationship further. 

Thursday has seen the UK retail sales report fall slightly short of predictions; however it’s still lent the Pound some underlying support. The Pound is displaying stability against the US Dollar as the US Federal Reserve is currently showing no intention of increasing interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee also dropped its initial forecast of a long term interest rate from 4-3.75%.
Forecast:
The GBP/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, but closed above the 1.70 handle, a significant move to the upside. That was a pretty strong barrier for us, and we believe that it opens the way to the 1.75 level as a target. It will probably take a bit of time, but we do believe that eventually that level gets hit. If we pull back from here, we would fully anticipate buyers stepping into the market and lifting the British pound yet again.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD ended the week close to the 94 mark at 0.9383 staying strong after positive data and promises from the Chinese Premier that China will meet its growth expectations regardless of what the government needs to do. 

The currency soared after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The ‘Aussie’ fell from its highest level in two months against the US Dollar after peaking at 94.33, the highest level witnessed since April 10th. The Australian dollar has more than shaken off a slight dovish shift by the Reserve Bank of Australia and has not spent much time beneath 94 cents since the FOMC meeting.  It seems likely the market would at some stage like to inquire as to what kind of supply is above 94.4 cents.
Forecast:
The Australian Dollar is now expected to fall against the US Dollar at a quickening pace as the US economy improves and commodity prices fall. The AUD/USD pair went back and forth over the course of the week forming a neutral candle. This neutral candle is still within the consolidation area that we have been in for some time, thereby not really telling us much other than the pressure to breakout to the upside continues. Because of this, we believe that ultimately the Australian dollar does again, but the market has some work to do to make that happen. If we can get a move above the 0.95 handle, we believe that this market goes to the parity level given enough time.
Currency Data from 23 – 27 june

Date	Time	Currency	Impact	Particular	Forecast	Previous
Mon Jun 23	7:15am	CNY	HIGH	HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI	49.7	49.4
	11:30am	JPY	HIGH	BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
	2:30pm	EUR	HIGH	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	49.6	49.6
	1:00pm	EUR	HIGH	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	52.7	52.3
	7:30pm	USD	HIGH	Existing Home Sales	4.74M	4.65M
Tue Jun 24	2:00pm	GBP	HIGH	Inflation Report Hearings
	7:30pm	USD	HIGH	CB Consumer Confidence	83.6	83
		USD	HIGH	New Home Sales	442K	433K
Wed Jun 25	6:00pm	USD	HIGH	Core Durable Goods Orders m/m	0.003	0.003
Thu Jun 26	3:00pm	GBP	HIGH	BOE Gov Carney Speaks
	6:00pm	USD	HIGH	Unemployment Claims	314K	312K
Fri Jun 27	4:15am	NZD	HIGH	Trade Balance	250M	534M
	All Day	EUR	HIGH	German Prelim CPI m/m	0.002	-0.001
	2:00pm	GBP	HIGH	Current Account	-17.1B	-22.4B

COMEX Trading Technical Analysis Outlook

GOLD

The impact of the positive jobs data released last week can be seen on gold. There are expectations that the gold prices will decline in coming days. The prices was flat yesterday and ended 0.05% day declining margin and closed at $1251.6/oz. The inflation can move higher indicating that the monetary policy winding will be done soon which will result in correction of gold prices.
Forecast
Gold continue to trade in a range .The trading range can be between 1246-1270 as the recent trend in bullion prices are lower .
SILVER

Base metals largely underperformed the last week, still silver managed to perform well .It is still expected to continue the weaker trend and the gold to silver ratio is observed at 66 mark and might trade in a range and may start moving higher gradually .Silver traded marginally higher yesterday and 0.3% increase has been observed diverging from weakness in gold prices. The dollar index rose by 0.3%yesterday, strength in base metals complex led to gains in silver prices.
Forecast
The silver can trade marginally higher and the range bound movement can be observed.
CRUDE

The oil prices increased by 1$ on Monday because of the strong Chinese data and US data which indicates that the growth in economy is healthy and demand is also high .The positive data boosted an oil market already in loss of crude exports from Libya, where violence and civil turmoil have cut oil output by more than 1 million barrels a day .The china’s export have come more than the forecast it is due to the firmer global demand which is rising 7% from a year earlier and increased 9% by April .
Forecast
The up movement in prices can be observed in the coming session .It is also expected to range of 103-105.30 .
TODAY’S DAY RANGE

COMMODITY	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1248	1240	1260	1265
SILVER	18.80	18.70	19.10	19.30
CRUDE	104	103.30	105.20	105.80

 DAY’S HIGHLIGHT

• Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence declined to 8.5-mark in June.
• US API crude oil inventories expected to fall by 1.5 mn bbl. – Reuters.
• China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.5 percent in May.
• Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity declined by 5.4 percent in April.
• Probe into Qingdau port pushed the red metal lower.
• UK’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor grew by 0.5 percent in last month.

Technical Analysis for Gold Silver & Crude

GOLD

Spot gold prices started the week on a positive note and rose to three week high on escalating tensions in Ukraine and a break above the key $1300 mark. However, rising US equities with S&P moving within 1percent of its record high last week capped sharp gains in the metal.

Forecast

On an intraday basis, gold prices can trade on a mixed note and can take an up-move.

SILVER

Silver tried to rally during the course of the week, but gave up most of the gains by the time we closed on Friday. We see the $20.00 level as massively resistive now, as the market has formed a shooting star. However, we have also formed a couple of hammers in this general vicinity, so the end of the day it’s probably going to be consolidation going forward.

Forecast

On an intraday basis, we expect silver prices to trade on a mixed note as the economic data released from the US is painting bright picture about the economy.

While on the other hand, improving trend in SPDR holdings along with weakness in the DX will cushion sharp downside or even reversal in prices.

CRUDE

Crude oil prices for June expiry contract at NYMEX managed a strong performance past week. WTI prices registered gains of around 1. 5% to $101.75 per barrel for the last week In the other major global benchmark, the ICE Brent saw a near similar performance with the commodity inching higher by 1.75% to near $110 per barrel level.

Forecast

Brent rising in the recent past rapidly possibly due to Libya tension while WTI grade is managing higher. For the day we expect both the oil grades may trade higher so we suggest buying from lower levels.

TODAY’S DAY RANGE

COMMODITY	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1290	1280	1300	1308
SILVER	19.00	18.50	20.00	20.50
CRUDE	101	100.80	102	102.80

DAY’S HIGHLIGHT

• US Building Permits increased to 1.08 million in the last month.
• LME Copper inventories plunged by whopping 10.5 percent last week.
• Euro Zone Trade Balance was at surplus of 15.2 bn Euros in Q1 2014.
• Improving US economic data exerts downside pressure on gold prices.
• US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment declined to 81.8-mark in May.

Data Update for 19th May 2014

Time	Currency	Impact	Particular	Actual	Forecast	Previous
4:15am	NZD		PPI Input q/q	1.00%	0.50%	-0.70%
	NZD		PPI Output q/q	0.90%	0.40%	-0.40%
4:31am	GBP		Rightmove HPI m/m	3.60%		2.60%
5:20am	JPY		Core Machinery Orders m/m	19.10%	6.10%	-4.60%
12:30pm	EUR	High	German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
Tentative	EUR		German Buba Monthly Report
All Day	CAD		Bank Holiday

Singapore Stock Market Technical Analysis View

Market Review for STI:

Singapore Stock opened higher today where STI was up by 11.61 points to 3249.35 as it was a gap up opening after yesterday’s gap down opening. STI took the up move later and made a high of 3267.83 and gave closing at 3264.71.

STI Day Performance
Open	3249.35
High	3267.83
Low	3248.62
Close	3264.71
Change(Points)	26.97
% Change	0.83
Volume	1651.6M
Rise	190
Fall	198
Unch	688

Market forecast for STI:
STI formed a long green candle for the day with a little upper shadow. Today STI took a movement of almost 16 points. Marubozu pattern was formed for the day. Hence performing in a consolidate phase.
Technical indicators:
RSI is just above the centre line @62.35. Where CCI is @ 69.74

STI LEVELS
Support 1	3255
Support 2	3244
Support 3	3230
Resistance 1	3275
Resistance 2	3288
Resistance 3	3299

Important Factor for today:-

• Important Factor for today:-
• New housing loan applications down by 45% on YOY basis.
• Mapletree will acquire 49% stake in Oakwood Asia Pacific in a joint venture to target and acquire service apartment business in Asia.
• Data for unemployment published for 1Q2014 with a rise of 2.1 % in unemployment rate where it was 1.8% in Dec2013.
• Bank lending in Singapore grew a bit faster by 0.6% in march as total loans grew to S$ 587.7 billion in March.
• 11% of gain posted by Yangzijiang Shipbuilding for 1Q2014 whereas net profit attributable to shareholder rose to 799.2million Yuan, as revenue grew 24% to 3.6 billion Yuan.

Top Gainers			Top Loosers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
Noble	1.285	3.21	CityDev	10.83	-2.17
UOB	21.76	2.74	JSH 500 USD	35.7	-1.11
Global Logistic	2.85	2.52	SIA Engineering	4.79	-0.83
OCBC Bank	9.65	1.9	ST Engineering	3.82	-0.78
Golden Agri-Res	0.61	1.67	Sembcorp Ind	5.37	-0.56

Market Review for KLCI:
KLCI opened flat today at 1859.32 at the same level as of yesterday’s closing and made a high of 1871.52 and gave closing to the same level it formed a green candle for the day.

KLCI Day Performance
Open	1859.32
High	1871.52
Low	1857.07
Close	1871.52
Change(Points)	12.18
% Change	0.66
Volume	1506.8M
Rise	362
Fall	419
Unch	1380

Market forecast for KLCI:
A long green candle was formed for the day with a long real body and a short lower shadow today KLCI touched a four months high of 1871 and is trading at the peck point.

KLCI LEVELS
Support 1	1850
Support 2	1835
Support 3	1880
Resistance 1	1890
Resistance 2	1905
Resistance 3	1850

Technical indicators:
The technical indicators are strong on the chart as RSI is at 63.80 & CCI is at 124.84

Top Gainers			Top Loosers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
ASTRO	3.33	4.06	PCHEM	6.73	-1.03
DIGI	5.54	2.78	SKPETRO	4.31	-0.46
TM	6.2	2.48	IOIPG	2.68	-0.37
IOICORP	5	2.46	UMW	10.76	-0.37
MAYBANK	9.9	1.85	GENTING	9.8	-0.3